Surfing the waves of change
At Ageas, we believe the secret of valuable strategic foresight lies in preparing well for ALL future scenarios. That means considering all the possible driving forces, including the unexpected events or the small changes that can seem insignificant at first sight.
Trends and megatrends
The insurance industry is facing many transformative moments. Different trends create global waves of change – megatrends – such as demographic evolution, environmental changes, next-gen economies, and accelerated IT innovation. They are provoking a fundamental shift that will shape the face of insurance for the years to come. However, the future is not just about trends or even megatrends come to that.
Black swans
The Covid-19 pandemic clearly showed just how quickly the scenarios we built for the future can dramatically chance from what we originally thought possible. For instance, the pandemic had an enormous transformative impact on the acceleration of business’ evolution towards new ways of working.
Such events raise the question: How can we be equipped to be agile to deal with such future “surprises”?
Compared to the past, unexpected events – called black swans - are increasing in frequency and do not unfold in isolation. The impact of disruptive events - for instance: cyber-attacks, wars, floods - are more far-reaching and unpredictable than before., We can never look at them in isolation, but we need to connect the dots to understand the consequences when they interplay.
Weak signals
Understanding how (mega)trends shape the world around us and being alert to black swan events represent crucial ingredients for any successful business. Missing these shifts can lead to major disruption. However catching these potential trends early enough and capitalising on the opportunities they represent, can lead to growth.
These subtle changes are not easy to capture, as they start as ‘weak signals’ that hold no major significance for our business today but they might grow exponentially in the future.
They are an essential ingredient in our Horizon Scan: while our survey results can often detect weak signals, the proof points are difficult to trace through AI scanning alone. Our survey allows us to better anticipate the evolution of these trends and be more agile to act upon them whenever they accelerate and turn into a big tide of change.
One good example is hybrid workplaces. The pandemic (a black swan) has unleashed an unprecedented wave of change in how, when and where we work. With the increase in remote work, lines between private and professional life are increasingly blurred. While much of the discussion around the workplace has been about remote and physical workplaces, will hybrid workplaces (a combination of the two models) be the “final destination” or a weak signal of another major evolution of work?
